CPI Inflation at 3.28% in September; August IIP rises 4.3%

CPI Inflation at 3.28% in September; August IIP rises 4.3%

The CPI Inflation for September was recorded 3.28%, down from previous month's 3.36% mainly due to fall in food prices post monsoon. This primarily reflects weaknesses in aggregate demand. On the other hand, the inflation print rose in the fuel and light category to 5.56 per cent.

Looking at the growth of industries in manufacturing sector, at least 10 out of the 23 industry groups in the manufacturing sector have shown an uptick in growth for August.

In my opinion, IIP growth will not sustain at this level, as base effect will keep shifting.

Electricity production increased 8.3 percent in August as compared with 2.1 percent a year ago.

Rising energy prices and implementation of farm loan waivers aggravates the inflationary pressure.

The rate of price in vegetables softened to 3.92 per cent (from 9.97 per cent in August). Now we see some moderation in food prices. I think the picture has to evolve, because the government is still contemplating changes to GST.

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Headline is well within the central bank's estimate of 2-3.5 percent range for 1H17.

According to BNR, the CPI annual inflation rate going back to the target interval was estimated to occur in the third quarter of 2017.

The drop in inflation may firm up the government and industry's case for a rate cut in December when the monetary policy committee will be meeting again.

The number is better than our expectations.

The data revealed the overall food inflation moderated to 1.25 per cent in September from 1.67 per cent in the previous month. Going ahead, the key driver of inflation will be oil.

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